Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
