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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or just the biggest shock.

Yet the current race is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners declining and recent strugglers improving collectively. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's facing five other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a given after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still